How much of a good thing is too much? Most NBA teams would adore having Jonas Valanciunas as their fourth offensive option. Averaging 20.4 points and 14.7 boards per 36 minutes on 61% true shooting (five points above league average) might place him third on many teams’ offensive hierarchies. Given his significant defensive limitations, though, just how valuable is that offense for the New Orleans Pelicans, a team marked by one-way offensive stars?
Improving on Defense Is Key
Though New Orleans rolled out the NBA’s sixth-best defense (112 defensive rating) last season, Valanciunas’ presence didn’t contribute much on that end. In fact, the Pelicans’ defense improved with Valanciunas off, jumping up a staggering five points per 100 possessions. With Valanciunas on the bench, the Pelicans played like a top-five defense. With him on, they were bottom-ten.
The individual defensive metrics viewed Valanciunas as a bottom-of-the-league defender as his defensive EPM (-2.2), steal rate (0.5%) and block rate (2.6%) were all career lows. The eye test agrees as Valanciunas bleeds points as a rim protector and pick-and-roll defender. He seems to have lost a few steps, struggling to defend near the level of the screen and change directions as a pick-and-roll defender.
Valanciunas’ lack of mobility and vertical explosion limit his rim protection outside of 1v1s; his block rate placed among the bottom 30 of all centers last season. New Orleans’ elite point of attack and wing defense insulated Valanciunas, minimizing the damage his deficiencies caused. He still provides utility as an individual defender in the post and on face-ups, his towering size and length stymieing post approaches. That skillset, of course, isn’t super valuable in an NBA marked by pace, space and movement.
Production in the Post
His offense is impactful, though, as Valanciunas is a legit volume scorer with strong efficiency which will always be a valuable commodity. Unlike many players, he fits the definition of a three-level scorer. Valanciunas thrives isolating in the post, floating hooks and runners, as well as facing up and draining mid-ranges.
The three-point shot is finally a threat — Valanciunas doesn’t take many threes but he hits them at a 34.9% clip (Does anyone remember that game last season where he randomly made seven threes?). Adding that to his strong rebounding presence and solid, if not spectacular passing, Valanciunas is a genuinely strong offensive player.
New Orleans’ rosters quite a few high-octane offensive stars — Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum) — all of whom have major defensive weaknesses. Would New Orleans benefit from the Pelicans’ fourth starter being more defensive-oriented, say, Herb Jones or Dyson Daniels?
His Presence Matters
That healthy Pelicans’ juggernaut is far from guaranteed given the health of their stars, so Valanciunas’ offensive presence always adds value in carrying bench lineups and filling in for stars. Adding to a strength is never a bad thing and the Pelicans’ defense has managed to survive in spite of Valanciunas. If he can return to his solid defensive form of a few years ago, Valanciunas will play a key role in the Pelicans’ push for the postseason.
Written by contributor Ben Pfeifer.
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