There’s no question that the 2023-24 season is a critical one for the New Orleans Pelicans. Since David Griffin took charge in 2019 the Pelicans have been underachievers due to injuries, roster mistakes, and a revolving door of coaches.
Through it all the Pelicans and the fans have been able maintain some level of optimism. This season, the rubber is expected to meet the road. The Western Conference is deeper than its ever been and for this iteration of the Pelicans, it is now or never.
The Bird Writes surveyed our staff and here are their predictions and questions for the upcoming season.
Survey Says
The New Orleans Pelicans will get at least 50 games from its starting lineup of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, Herbert Jones, and Jonas Valanciunas:
Panel’s pick: No. The Pelicans only saw their preferred starting unit 10 times all of last season. CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas, and Herbert Jones have all been pretty durable for New Orleans, but McCollum showed some wear and tear last season and Jones sat out 16 games with minor injuries. The biggest, figurative and literal, concerns center around Williamson and Ingram.
Over his first four seasons, Zion has averaged 28.5 games per season, or half a game less than he played during the 2022-23 campaign. In seven seasons, Ingram has played more than 60 games only twice (2019-20, 2020-21).
Until it happens, we’re just not convinced that it will.
Who will lead the Pelicans in scoring?
Panel’s Pick: Zion Williamson. Zion has led the Pels in scoring twice, only failing to do so as a rookie. His efficiency around the basket and ability to get to the line make him less prone to having “off nights.” As long as he’s getting touches, he’s getting buckets.
Who will lead the Pelicans in rebounding?
Panel’s pick: Jonas Valanciunas. Another easy choice for our staff. The Pelicans possess many talents, but individual rebounding isn’t one of them. The Pels attack the glass as a group, but one player does stand out. Over his two seasons in New Orleans, JV has grabbed 10 or more rebounds in 100 of 153 games (65.3%). No one else on the roster comes close.
Who will lead the Pelicans in assists?
Panel’s pick: Brandon Ingram. Another area where it’s a team effort for the Pelicans is the assist department. New Orleans doesn’t have a traditional point guard on the roster and James Borrego’s offense dictates constant ball and player movement. That being said, Ingram showed how capable a distributor he can be in leading the Pelicans to the Play-in tournament last season. We expect that to carry over into this season, though McCollum and Williamson should get their share of dimes as well.
Who will lead the Pelicans in steals?
Panel’s pick: Herbert Jones. Come on. It’s Herb. I know it. You know. We all know it. Hopefully the Pelicans can experience the level of team success that gets Jones the recognition he deserves as one of the NBA’s true elite defenders.
Who will lead the Pelicans in blocks?
Panel’s pick: See previous answer.
Where will the Pelicans finish in the Southwest Division standings?
Panel’s pick: Third. Since the 2018-19 season, New Orleans has finished fourth, fifth, fourth, third, and second in the Southwest Division race. The Memphis Grizzlies are the favorites to repeat as division champs, and the rest of the teams have gotten better from a year ago. The Thunder are deep, talented, and hungry. San Antonio has added Victor Wembanyama, the Rockets added veterans to go with their young core, and Dallas still has Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic. Every game in this division should be a dogfight.
Where will the Pelicans finish in the Western Conference standings?
Panel’s pick: 7-10. This may be the deepest the Western Conference has been since it expanded to 15 teams. Last season 12 teams went into the final weeks with a real chance to make the postseason, and seeds four through 10 were separated by a total of four games. Expect a repeat of that again this season, with the added knowledge that last season’s bottom feeders (Portland, Houston, San Antonio) are all better than they were as well.
If the Pelicans return to the postseason, how far do they advance?
Panel’s pick: Eliminated in the First Round. If we’re picking the Pelicans to finish in the lower half of the playoff seedings, that means they won’t have home court advantage in the postseason. Considering just how tough the top of the West is, that makes it unlikely that the Pels can make it to the conference semifinals for the the third time in franchise history.
Questions and Concerns
Which player is under more pressure this season, Zion Williamson or Brandon Ingram? Why?
Panel’s pick: Zion Williamson. In a narrow vote, Zion got the nod. Here’s why:
“He still has massive expectations and obvious talent. Outside of the building his preparation and dedication have been questioned – now some of those concerns were admitted by people in the building publicly. He needs to change his perception in the building and throughout the league.”
“How can a star lead a team to special places if they’re never on the court? Ingram has appeared in 223 regular season games since arriving in New Orleans; Zion, over the same time frame, 114 games. One’s suited up for all play-in and playoff games. The other’s watched from the sidelines in every instance. Availability is the first hurdle of many and Williamson has failed miserably in that department to date.”
Which player is more likely to be traded, Zion or B.I.? Why?
Panel’s pick: Brandon Ingram. Though it’s difficult to imagine either being moved during the season, it’s a possibility.
“Brandon Ingram, mainly because he has a contract extension looming this coming off-season. Only the Pels brass know how preliminary discussion have gone but if they are getting the feeling that he wants to test the market then the team might benefit from moving him now before the pressure increases and their leverage decreases next season. From a purely basketball point of view it’s possible the team might not see him as the best fit next to Zion. If that is the case then moving BI for pieces that fit better around Zion and promoting Trey Murphy into the starting lineup could make a ton of sense.“
What is the Pelicans’ biggest strength going into the season?
Panel’s pick: Interior scoring/Roster continuity.
“Any Zion-led team’s biggest strength will be efficient interior scoring. Especially when you combine Zion with Jonas Valanciunas, New Orleans should be near the top of the league scoring near the rim.“
“The Pelicans return their starting unit for the first time in a very long time, and they’ve had the same coach three straight seasons. 13 players were with the team in some form or fashion last year. So, there shouldn’t be a lot of time spent on getting to know each other and learning new concepts outside of the offense installed by James Borrego.“
What is your biggest concern about the Pelicans (besides health) this season?
Panel’s pick: Rim protection/Rebounding/Point guard depth
“Rim protection and rebounding are by far my biggest concerns. The Pelicans are entering the season with one legit center on the roster and even that guy (Jonas Valanciunas) doesn’t provide rim protection. Increasing the concern is the Pelicans stated desire to play smaller this season. That’s all well and good but when playing small somebody still has to do the dirty work to close out possessions. I haven’t seen evidence that anyone on this team outside of Valanciunas is willing and/or capable of providing rebounding or challenge shots at the rim effectively.”
“The preseason showed a lot of warts, with the offense looking legitimately paralyzed by an overabundance of turnovers. The Pelicans do not have a traditional point guard that can be overly relied upon to get things back on track quickly. Going small has normally led to serious issues on the glass in the past, like limiting opponents to one shot per possession. The defense, which was the team’s strong suit last season, could take a step back from being put in more precarious positions — being asked to defend a greater amount of transition opportunities is usually a recipe for disaster.“
Which player is the biggest X-factor for the Pelicans?
Panel’s pick: Dyson Daniels.
“Dyson Daniels. They need playmaking, rebounding and a Trey Murphy gap filler till Trey returns. If Dyson can provide those things he will be a huge X-factor.“
“Dyson Daniels defended like a veteran last season for New Orleans in a low minute role, so continuing his defensive excellence with more minutes would be massive. He projects to be one of the team’s best playmakers so any offensive improvement would be hugely important to make life easier for the Pelicans’ elite scorers.“
“Daniels is the best perimeter defender outside of Herb Jones, but his skill set extends into other areas like rebounding and playmaking. His confidence on offense appears to have taken a step forward since summer league. If his 41.7 percent shooting from 3-point range in preseason doesn’t prove a mirage, Daniels could be a vital jack of all trades for Willie Green.“
The Verdict
Like everyone else observing the Pelicans, our panel has taken the position that the Pels have a lot to prove this season. As individual players and a collective unit, it just seems like this will be the breaking point one way or another. Either the Pelicans put it together and begin to truly climb towards the top of the NBA, or it may be time to start another rebuild in the Crescent City.
Panel: Kevin Barrios, Jamile Dunn, David Grubb, Oleh Kosel, and Ben Pfeifer.
READ MORE
- The Bird Calls: Ready to Fly? Pelicans Preseason Preview with Antonio Daniels (Video)
- Pelicans Looking For Second Consecutive Opening Night Road Win Against Grizzlies
- Pelicans Announce Opening Night Roster for 2023-24 NBA Season
- The Impact of CJ McCollum’s Consistency on the Pelicans’ Success
- Matt Ryan: Great Story of Perseverance Now Also Pelicans’ 3-point Back-up Plan
- A Lot On Herb: Jones Remains Keystone of Pelicans Defense
- Zion, Pelicans Save Their Best For Last and Beat Magic 104-92
- Dyson Daniels Needed For More Than Defense In Year 2
- Making a Difference: How Larry Nance Jr. Elevates the Pelicans’ Second Unit
- New Orleans Pelicans Better Positioned to Handle Adversity
I am not that confident. Who are the Pels better than (assuming Z stays reasonably healthy)? –SA yes; Houston–should be; Mavs–maybe; Grizz– only because of Ja situation; OKC–maybe; Portland; yes.
Which teams are clearly better than Pels?–Denver; LA Lakers; Sac Kings; GS
Which teams are likely better than Pels, but not necessarily so?–PHO, LA Clips, Utah.
Who are Pels peers? OKC and Minny
Pels will make a huge mistake if they don’t trade picks to improve front court
It’s obvious the number 1 factor that will affect the Pels is that they need to stay healthy. Also as Deacon pointed out they need to improve front court. That was not addressed this off season and we have a lot of draft picks that could have made that happen but it didn’t. Not as confident this year as I was last year because we are basically same team
Ryan providing some outside shooting.