Make no mistake, the New Orleans Pelicans (25-18) have proven to be one of the better teams in the Western Conference. They have been trending nicely since a team meeting on Nov. 13, but regardless, they are one of a handful of squads that boasts a top 5 offense and defense on the season. Their high level of play has put them in serious playoff contention, as they currently reside in a tie for fifth in the standings.
There’s a strong belief, however, that the win-loss record should be stronger.
“I think since mid-November, we’re third in the NBA in net rating. We’re sixth in offense, we’re fourth in defense and we’re only 21-11 in that span,” David Griffin told Antonio Daniels on an episode of Give and Go last week. “And what we haven’t been good at, and where I’d like to see us improve, is closing games. We start a game, we’re the No. 1 defense in the league. We close a game, we’re the 22nd defense in the league in the second half. These are areas of growth for us. Improving in the clutch is certainly one of those.”
The clearest areas for improvement are continuing to hunt a greater amount of 3-pointers, vastly tightening up effort levels in second halves and figuring out a way to get into the winner’s circle more often when games enter clutch minutes.
The Pelicans are one of the best outside shooting teams in the league at 38.2 3PT% but rank towards the bottom in tries at 31.7 3-point attempts. That’s a bad combination, especially in light of the fact they’re 13-5 when they simply shoot 32 or more attempts from deep.
The 3-pointer is one of the most valuable shots in basketball and the Pelicans have assembled a great cast of outside shooters. They must start getting them up on a more consistent basis from game to game.
The coaching staff has made mention that the goal is to shoot 40 or more 3s every time out. The Pelicans have accomplished that feat only five times through the first 43 games. The good news, though, is that the numbers are trending upwards and hope exists the higher volume is here to stay.
| Month | Games | 3-point attempts | 3-point field goal percentage |
| October | 3 | 34.7 | 31.7% |
| November | 16 | 30.3 | 36.4% |
| December | 14 | 30.8 | 38.7% |
| January | 10 | 34.4 | 42.2% |
“I think we’re doing a much better job of leaning into who we need to be as a team,” Griffin said. “And {last Wednesday} was great evidence of that. We set the franchise record with 3s made, by way of example. That needs to be much more a part of who we are. We have the personnel to do that and we need to lean into that a lot more. You see how open Zion gets everybody that he passes to. His gravity is truly ridiculous. Brandon’s passing ability is incredible. But we’ve got a group of guys that will stare the ball natively and I think you’ve seen that.”
The Pelicans have four legitimate 3-point bombers in CJ McCollum, Trey Murphy, Jordan Hawkins and Matt Ryan. Three are in the regular rotation now, and when Ryan returns from injury, he could present Willie Green a fourth option, though it’s more likely he’ll serve as insurance considering the depth on the roster.
McCollum has altered his shot profile to the point of exchanging several long 2s for 3s this season. For the first time in his career, he’s on pace to finish with more attempts from 3 (52.7%) than 2 (47.3%). That’s great to see because he’s currently shooting 43.4% from the outside, which would easily mark a new career best.
Murphy hasn’t been blessed with great health, having missed the first 19 games to rehab from arthroscopic knee surgery and then dealing with knee tendonitis following an awkward collision with Marcus Smart in a Dec. 26 matchup against the Grizzlies. Once he returns to 100% and establishes a rhythm, there’s an expectation he’ll improve upon his 38.5 3PT% because he’s simply one of the most accurate shooters in the league.
Hawkins could be the most pivotal name of the group. Despite being a rookie, he’s already one of the best movers off the ball that demands an opponent’s respect. Armed with an unwavering amount of confidence and a lightning quick release, it’s almost a given he will get up a healthy dose of 3s. And right now, he’s on a bit of a heater.
As opposed to the upwards 3-point shooting trends, the second-half drop-offs remain an unsolved mystery. The Pelicans have been world-beaters in first halves but well below average after halftime, especially on the defensive end.
| Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating | Net Rating | |
| First Half | 118.3 (7) | 106.8 (1) | +11.5 (2) |
| Second Half | 116.1 (13) | 118.4 (22) | -2.3 (23) |
Those second-half numbers tell an extremely discouraging tale. The Pelicans morph from elite team to a non-playoff contender following halftime.
“I think we’re all still trying to figure it out,” Willie Green said after Sunday’s practice. “The biggest thing for us, when I say figure it out, is figure out we’re having good first halves, not as much in second halves. Those are things that we’re looking at, looking at the numbers, how can we be better, talking about it, watching film on it, working on it. But it’s the consistency. To be a top tier team in this league, you have to be consistent. That’s an improvement area for us. We know it. Everything is on the table in terms of the possibilities moving forward with that.”
The regular starting lineup of CJ McCollum, Herb Jones, Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas has echoed these woes but to a much larger degree. They resemble an elite five in the first half, an abomination in the second.
| Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating | Net Rating | |
| First Half | 124.0 | 113.3 | +10.7 |
| Second Half | 109.5 | 128.7 | -19.2 |
“That’s a lot of what these season playoff teams do,” Larry Nance Jr. said on Sunday. “Obviously, we saw the Clippers. They make their adjustments and their second halves are played harder than their first halves. The same thing with the Suns. And obviously the Warriors are notorious for that. The better we get and the more we play these experienced teams that have that playoff mentality, which is what the Suns did. They matchup-hunted all game. It’s what we’re going to see in the playoffs, when we make it.”
These drop-offs have coincided with the Pelicans losing an uncomfortable amount of games when they’ve led by double digits on the season.
| Date | Opponent | Biggest Lead | Final Score |
| 11-04-2023 | @Hawks | +10 | 105-123 |
| 11-06-2023 | @Nuggets | +20 | 116-134 |
| 11-10-2023 | @Rockets | +10 | 101-104 |
| 11-18-2023 | Timberwolves | +15 | 120-121 |
| 11-25-2023 | @Jazz | +13 | 100-105 |
| 12-02-2023 | @Bulls | +10 | 118-124 |
| 12-19-2023 | Grizzlies | +24 | 113-115 |
| 12-26-2023 | Grizzlies | +15 | 115-116 |
| 1-15-2024 | @Mavericks | +10 | 120-125 |
Nine losses after leading by 10 or more points is discouraging, even more so with the Pelicans having only registered three comeback wins when trailing by double digits. They have failed to show enough necessary resolve when falling behind by a sizable margin.
For reference, the Pelicans lost 14 games after leading by double digits last season. It’s important to note that only three of those losses occurred prior to Williamson straining his right hamstring and never suiting up again. This season, Williamson has missed only eight games, but the Pelicans are on pace to lose more games when they’ve led comfortably. This fact alone should raise eyebrows.
The Pelicans are past the midway point of the schedule so more than enough data exists to foster a belief that some form of action must be taken. Making a change may ultimately prove the best option, but it appears the decision-makers will give the current rotation a little more time.
“We’ve got to come out of halftime, come out of the locker room with the same intentions that we had in the first half,” Green said. “It’s something that we’re aware of. Like you said, we have all the numbers. We’ve talked to out team about it. The best thing we can do is get on the floor and work on them.”
Having three days to iron out issues prior to tonight’s matchup against the Jazz and then another few days before Friday’s game against the Thunder could help steady the ship.
“It’s always talking about adjustments this, adjustments that, change of this, change of that, and it’s like, you need to understand, we play a game every other day,” Nance said. “So as soon as you’re done breaking down film from the last game, you’ve got to break down film for the next team. It’s a never-ending cycle. These three days, and these two days in between games, are just going to be huge for us going forward in terms of things we can instill in the middle of the season.”
Getting on the same page and having a chance to work on weaknesses have proven beneficial previously for this squad. These next few weeks before the NBA trade deadline should be determinative though.
The Pelicans will close out January against five postseason-hopeful teams. A positive trend would relieve some doubt and buy the current group more time. If not, making a change to the rotation or starting lineup should be the road traveled, with the front office also potentially pushing the button on the right trade to shake things up.
“We want to give them a chance to correct it, but we’re at the point where everything is on the table,” Green said.
In addition to the second-half defensive struggles, the underperformance theme is spilling into late-game situations. The Pelicans are 6-9 in games decided by clutch minutes, where the scoring margin is five points or less at any point during the last five minutes of regulation. Only the Raptors, Wizards, Spurs and Pistons have a worse winning percentage.
New Orleans’ win-loss record is much, much worse when accounting for games decided by three points or less: the Pelicans are winless at 0-6.
There’s little confidence, consequently, of this team being prepared for any upcoming postseason run. They’ve been prone to letting off the gas and showing an inability to get back in the groove. And finding that groove in key minutes has been too tall of a task so far.
Consider even the start of this campaign. The Pelicans led the Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points with 2:51 left in regulation in the 2023-24 season opener. The Grizzlies finished the game on a 9-0 run, leading to a 111-104 final score.
Two days later, the Pelicans were on the verge of posting a comfortable victory, leading the New York Knicks by 19 points with 3:34 remaining in the fourth quarter. A Knicks’ 10-0 run to close things out made it a 96-87
Wins over the Embiid-less 76ers (led by 29), Kings (led by 17), Nuggets (led by 20) and Pistons (led by 25) got dicey in the 4th quarter too.
The Pelicans should be a stronger performing team to close out games and in clutch-time minutes. The statistics say they have the personnel to excel. Herb Jones, Dyson Daniels, Jose Alvarado, Naji Marshall and Larry Nance always give furious effort. The bench is one of the best in the business. Ingram and Williamson shot the ball extremely well in key moments last season, ranking among the top of the league in clutch field goal percentage. They haven’t been bad per se this season. But the team comparison is astounding.
| Record | Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating | Net Rating | |
| 2022-23 | 17-20 | 113.9 (6) | 103.9 (7) | +10.0 (5) |
| 2023-24 | 6-9 | 97.7 (27) | 118.1 (24) | -20.4 (28) |
As to where the team underperformed given the solid numbers last season, the Pelicans have been flat-out awful in the most pivotal moments. It’s honestly a surprise they’ve managed to eke out six wins in 15 games based on this data.
There’s no question that clutch-time minutes are a different animal. It’s reminiscent of playoff basketball, where there’s a premium on every possession. In addition to big made baskets and key free throws, decision-making and hustle can decide outcomes.
Ingram and Williamson have been teammates since the start of the 2019-20 season. Injuries have marred the evolution of the tandem on the court, but even so, their individual ability should push the Pelicans to be at least an average team in the clutch because they both possess game-changing talent on the offensive end. They, along with McCollum, have all been above average in isolation plays as well as running pick and rolls, for instance.
So if the clutch-time issues do not appear to stem from a dearth of talent, the finger points to, once again, the lack of mental fortitude to overcome adversity.
Having a tendency to give up big leads much more often than coming back from great deficits, playing much more poorly out of halftime and failing to close out close games on top are all indicative of the same problem.
“There’s a lot of positives going on with this team as far as offensively and defensively, but those are areas we are looking at because we want to be really good against the best teams as well,” Green said.
The Pelicans have lost to the Clippers, Nuggets and Suns in recent weeks and the games were not all that competitive. While they’ve certainly had a number of quality wins throughout the season, which includes a sparkling 12-9 road record, real doubt exists about whether this Pelicans team can play as consistently and summon another gear when necessary as those above them in the standings.
The Pelicans are very much aware of the glaring problems that lie under the hood of a good team overall. They’re also in the midst of a soft portion of the schedule, needing to play only one game in six days. Will some of these issues start to resolve themselves after the Pelicans being afforded a great deal of practice time to address them? Or will the coaching staff and front office feel the pressure to make a significant change?
Pay close attention to the next handful of games. They’re likely to show not only how well the Pelicans may close out the rest of the season but which group of players will receive the privilege of doing so.
For more Pelicans talk, subscribe to The Bird Calls podcast feed on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher or Google Podcasts. You can follow this author on Twitter at @OlehKosel.
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Rotations, rotations, rotations.. You cannot put a lineup of Jose, Naji, Dyson, BI and Larry or Jonas on the court at the same time and not bog down production.
Willie coaches like it is 2005. You win with offensive efficiency and spreading the floor. We rarely see Z and Trey or Z and Hawkins on the court at the same time.
And we have to quit babying Z. I was at the game on Friday and Booker played the first 15 minutes without a rest. Z was just starting to get going, and they sit him after the first 6 minutes.
Z is the team’s Batman. Time to unleash him
Tonight is a great example of offense efficiency, spreading the floor, and ball movement. 41 assists which when compared to 9 turnovers is 4 1/2 times more. It works Willie.
Yes, the Pels lack a killer instinct. What they really lack is an understanding that every possession is critical from the first to the last. I think there is an over emphasis on the number of 3s taken. The Pels are scoring enough points, they are not getting enough stops. This team has proven they can score on anyone, when they move the ball and take the best shot available. When they have lost big leads it is because they have gotten off script and started playing individually. You have one person touching the ball during a possession, you have point blank missed at the rim, you have turnovers and missed free throws. The Pels are good at stringing together these empty sets and then they are slow to get back on defense and the 3 ball is the equalizer for opponents to get back into the game. In crunch time, you can see the stress in their face. They don’t have anyone taking charge and getting the team back on script, now you have people trying to be the hero as opposed to doing the things that got the big lead. Another big issue is the avoidance of contact. They must be more physical. Everyone wants their shot to go in as opposed to creating contact and going to the line. The best defense is to have your opponent’s best players sitting with foul trouble. If they were aggressive in the 1st period, they would create foul problems for opponents and then can use the remaining 3 periods to show how pretty their shots are.
They still need an experienced PG for crunch time. Lowery could be a great add, if they could get him in the buyout market for the right price. He has been in championship situations and he defends.
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